The big 5 predictors of success
I’ve spent the last decade studying the actual mechanics of what makes people successful.
Open YouTube, Substack, or X right now, and you will be inundated with emergency sirens disguised as career advice.
“You only have two years to escape the underclass!”
“The next five years will define the rest of your life!”
“AI is coming for your job!”
They put a timeline on your potential. To me, this is pure fear-mongering designed to spike engagement.
Any well-read person who knows a bit about history understands that humans are incredibly inventive.
Every generation faces “life-changing technologies” that terrify people, and every generation adapts. There is rarely a need for panic.
I’ve spent the last decade studying the actual mechanics of what makes people successful. When you strip away the hype, you are left with foundational principles backed by decades of research.
My guess is that you are already aware of these concepts. But they get snowed under by the current onslaught of fear-based content promising quick fixes or impending doom.
If you want to build a good life—sturdy, resilient, and compounded over time—forget the artificial timelines.
Focus on these five factors instead.
1. Learned Optimism
The Researcher: Martin Seligman
This concept is often misunderstood as blind positivity. Learned Optimism is not about ignoring reality, though.
Life is hard and there’s no need to always be positive. However, you will benefit from having an overall optimistic perspective on life.
Seligman’s research found that how you explain setbacks to yourself dictates your resilience.
When bad things happen, do you view them as:
Permanent? (“This will never get better.”)
Pervasive? (“Because I failed at this, my whole life is a failure.”)
Personal? (“It’s all my fault because I’m flawed.”)
Optimists view setbacks as temporary, specific, and often situational.
Because they believe the setback is fixable, they persist longer.
In domains where the game is long (like investing, writing, or building a business), the person who persists the longest usually wins.
Optimism is the fuel for persistence.
2. Growth Mindset
The Researcher: Carol Dweck
To be honest, this concept has become a corporate buzzword, but let’s not dilute its power.
The takeaway from Dweck’s work is that a crucial mechanism is how you interpret failure.
Because let’s face it. We all fail.
People with a “fixed mindset” interpret failure as an indictment of their identity. I failed the test, therefore I am stupid. This makes failure too painful to risk again.
People with a “growth mindset” interpret failure as raw feedback data. I failed the test, therefore my strategy was wrong.
When failure is just information, you don’t take it personally.
You adjust your strategy faster.
Over time, the speed at which you integrate feedback and pivot is a massive predictor of future success.
3. Delayed Gratification
The Researcher: Walter Mischel
You know the famous study: put a marshmallow in front of a child, tell them if they wait fifteen minutes, they get two.
The kids who waited ended up more successful later in life.
For years, this was taught simply as “willpower.” But follow-up research added critical nuance: the effect shrinks when you control for socioeconomic background.
If a child grows up in an unstable environment where promises are rarely kept, eating the marshmallow immediately isn’t a lack of willpower—it’s the rational choice.
Why wait for a second marshmallow that probably won’t arrive?
The deeper predictor here isn’t just discipline. Delayed gratification is about having trust that the future will be better.
Success requires a fundamental belief that the environment is stable enough to reward future you for present sacrifices.
It’s the ability to prioritize a compounded reward over a short-term emotional impulse.
A big part of success is simply doing things that you don’t like today, so you have a life you do like in the future.
However, you must believe that the future will be better.
4. Deliberate Practice
The Researcher: Anders Ericsson
This is the antidote to the “life hack” culture. Ericsson’s research (which generated the often-misquoted “10,000-hour rule”) proved that expertise isn’t about talent, and it isn’t just about putting in time.
It’s about structured (and often painful) practice aimed at your weaknesses.
When it comes to research, deliberate practice works best in domains with clear rules and immediate feedback loops, like chess, music, or coding.
If you don’t know immediately whether what you just did was right or wrong, you aren’t practicing; you’re just doing.
If it feels easy, you aren’t growing. Skill grows where feedback is fast.
When it comes to other, more subjective, areas of life, you must find a way to generate a feedback loop.
This is why ambitious writers love writing online. They get instant feedback on whether something is good or not. Either the writing gets ignored or sparks a reaction.
The better your feedback, the more specifically you can train to become better.
5. Social Capital
The Researchers: Mark Granovetter, Robert Putnam
Self-help articles often ignore this because it’s the only predictor that isn’t purely individual.
Success isn’t just what you know or what habits you have; it’s a function of the information and opportunities flowing through your network.
Sociologist Mark Granovetter’s seminal research on “The Strength of Weak Ties” proved that your closest friends (strong ties) usually have the same information you do.
The biggest opportunities for new jobs, new ideas, and different perspectives come from your “weak ties” (acquaintances, friends of friends, and even strangers).
Your network is a big source of the opportunities in your life.
So what does all this mean? Can you engineer success?
Yes… but it’s not an exact science.
Ultimately, the above 5 predictors are things that you can learn. You can look at them as personality traits or habits.
I have to be completely honest. Before I adopted these traits, I was just drifting in life. I never even got close to any kind of substantial success.
A big part of that was the Social Capital aspect. My life started to change when I called on my weak ties to force a change.
You know, during the holiday season of 2014, I was going through a challenging period.
I had finished grad school three years earlier. In my mind, I should’ve been a success by that time. But I was still living with my parents. My younger brother was also struggling with choosing the right degree at that time, so the mood in our house was tense.
The day after Christmas, everything came to a boiling point. My brother and I were both unhappy and complaining about life.
At some point, my brother said something like, I don’t want to live a life that I can’t stand. I want to do the things I’m passionate about.
That moved something inside me. I looked at myself and said, What am I doing here?
I need to do something that excites me. The first thing that came to mind was moving to London and getting a new job.
When I was in university, I visited a friend who was studying in London at the time. I loved it so much that I told myself, I need to live here one day and work for a big company.
The day after Christmas, I decided to make my goal a reality. But I didn’t know how to start.
Somehow I remembered a guy I knew from the gym who worked at a large American tech firm.
So I sent him a message. I told him I had a master’s degree in Business Administration and was looking for a role at a Fortune 500 firm because I have always been interested in working for a large company.
He was very supportive. He set me up with a recruiter at his firm, and I chatted with them. They were very positive and wanted to set up another round of interviews.
But the role was in Dublin, Ireland. I thought about it and decided to say no and stick to what I really wanted, which was to live in London.
So I kept looking. Then, I applied for a role at Gartner, the IT research firm. After 5 interview rounds, I was hired in February of 2014. That started the journey I’m now on.
One thing led to another. I’m glad I looked outside my direct network for an opportunity.
The thing is that you sometimes have to force some kind of action in life; otherwise you just stay where you are.
Success is not math
So, will you become successful if you stick to the big 5 predictors?
I believe so.
However, it’s not as easy as 1+1=2. To build a life that you want, you will probably take a lot of detours. You will fail. You will get frustrated.
Sometimes you lose.
That’s all normal. Just keep believing in your ability to get to the next level.
If you look at the research, success isn’t about hitting an arbitrary two-year deadline set by the CEO of an AI company or someone with a big audience.
Success is about developing the traits that will make you a more rounded and valuable person.
And if you really think about it, the person who you become is the actual success.
Comprehensive! Enjoyed reading!